Let's not be hasty - again. Ranked-choice voting favored a candidate like Zohran Mamdani.

It’s Election Day in New York City. 

Along with the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, political pundits have been declaring the New York City race for Mayor as one to watch as a potential bellwether for 2026.

Democratic Socialists have made much of rising star, Zohran Mamdani. After winning the Democratic Party primary in June, Mamdani was understood to be the de facto mayor of New York.

His win against former Mayor Eric Adams and former New York governor Andrew Cuomo was considered a major upset. 

Since Adams dropped out of the mayoral race and threw his still considerable support behind Andrew Cuomo, the latter has been gradually rising in the polls.

Still Mr. Mamdani’s commanding lead makes it clear that he probably will be the next Mayor of New York City.

Will he be good for the city?

From “Free Palestine” to “Defund the Police” to “Open the Border”, there isn’t a far-left progressive ideal Mamdani hasn’t espoused during his short career in politics. 

But the question of whether or not Mamdani’s success in New York City could have wider implications for the Democratic Party hangs heavy over the race.

Since the Democratic Party’s ignominious defeat at the hands of Donald Trump and the Republican Party last November, there has been no end of soul-searching about what went wrong.

Did former President Joe Biden wait too long to drop out of the race?

Was it Kamala Harris?

Was the Democratic Party wrong to avoid a primary?

And most of all, did the party move too far left?

Or was it pandering to the right and center-left that sank Democratic Party hopes in 2024?

Opinions differ wildly.

Nine months into a frenetic second Trump term, Democrats are more desperate than ever for a definitive answer. Unfortunately for the party, smart people are just as vulnerable to cognitive bias and logical fallacy as the rest of us.

We believe what we want to believe.

Progressives in the Democratic Party would love to be able to claim, unblushingly, that far-left, fringe ideologies like open borders and defund the police didn’t cost votes in 2024.

They are right and they are wrong.

In the social circles of far-left progressives, the failure of the Biden-Harris Administration to properly address the conflict between Israel and Hamas was the big reason for Donald Trump’s victory.

By this retelling of the story of how Democrats lost the 2024 election, the Biden-Harris administration lost because they weren’t left enough.

In wider circles, in purple districts and swing states, far-left progressive policies like open borders and defund the police cost Democrats, dearly. And since Democrats lost the House, Senate, and Oval Office, plus the popular vote to boot, this viewpoint is worth considering.

By this telling, the Biden-Harris administration lost because they were too far left.

Who’s right?

It’s the kind of question history will answer. In the meantime, the Democratic Party expects there to be signs. One sign, they think, is Zohran Mamdani.

According to some, Mamadani’s Mayoral win in New York City is proof that voters want more of what the progressive left is selling. But is it true?

Maybe not.

New York City one of the bluest areas in the country. To say that the voting habits of people who live in NYC don’t mirror those of the entire nation is an understatement.

In the Democratic Party primary, Zohran Mamdani was running against two candidates who, fair or not, went into this election tarnished by scandal and unwanted notoriety. Would Zohran Mamdani have done as well against stronger competition?

Probably not.

And there is another major factor at play: New York City has ranked-choice voting now. It’s a relatively new phenomenon, only implemented in the last few years. The ranked-choice system was ideal for a candidate like Zohran Mamdani — he could consolidate the support of other liberal candidates as they were eliminated during the rounds.

Not everywhere has ranked-choice voting — to put it mildly. And not everyone wants it. The chances of passing a ranked-choice voting measure in a Republican stronghold would be extremely thin.

Given these factors, is Mamdani’s rising star a sign the Democratic Party should move farther to the left?

Democrats shouldn’t make assumptions or be too quick to anoint anyone as the next, best hope for the progressive movement.

As they did in 2024.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)