After an all-too brief period of soul-searching post-2016, some pollsters and polling companies made minor changes to their methodologies. Namely, some pollsters, started weighting results by education.
Others did not.
The polls showing Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 15 points belong in the latter group. Polls are still over-sampling Democrats by a large margin and using tiny sample sizes. Some of the most favorable polls for Joe Biden are based on the polling of 500 adults- not even registered voters or likely voters.
Some Democrats openly doubt the existence of the shy Trump voter. They just don’t know any.
There is no question, however, that some voters in 2016: A.) were unwilling to reveal their intention to vote for Donald Trump to pollsters, B.) were never polled to begin with, or C.) made up their minds in the voting booth…and voted for Donald Trump.
The idea that a great multitude of voters made it to Election Day 2016 without any strong feelings about Trump, one way or another, is implausible. Which makes A. and B. more likely.
There can be little doubt that the social cost of supporting Donald Trump has only increased since 2016. In 2016, Trump was considered a bit of a joke by a Democratic Party that actually helped Trump win the Republican Primary, believing he would be easier to beat than a more traditional Republican.
They aren’t being polled, and if they are, they aren’t admitting to supporting Trump, but on Election Day, an unexpected and unknown number of people are going to go into the voting booth, pull the curtain behind them, and cast their secret ballot- for Donald Trump.
In 2020, same story. Only now, Republicans have spent the last four years closing voter registration gaps in swing states. More new Republicans will be headed to the polls this year than new Democrats, and by a wide margin.
“It appears Trump’s support has grown in northeastern Pennsylvania. Even in Lackawanna County- Scranton, the hometown of Joe Biden- Trump’s supporters are growing in numbers. The Republican Party has closed the gap in the voter registration edge in Luzerne County and statewide.” — Pennsylvania State Senator John Yudichak.
Yudichak, for the record, supports Joe Biden.
4. Key Democratic Party Voting Blocs are Crumbling
Warning sings have long been flashing: The Democratic Party has been ignoring them in favor of shiny new reflections on intersectionality and critical race theory.
Meanwhile, Trump is gaining in support from what elite, idealistic Democrats would consider the unlikeliest of sources; African-American, Latino-American and Hispanic-American voters. To say nothing of union members, who broke rank to vote for Trump in 2016 and show every indication of doing so in even greater numbers in 2020.
The Trump campaign has been aggressively courting Black voters, and he is making surprising strides. Early voting from Philadelphia shows Trump has gained 10% over his results in that district in 2016.
Another high-profile rapper- Lil’ Wayne- has now joined Kanye West, Ice Cube, 50 Cent, and Waka Flocka Flame in showing support for or at least a willingness to work with Donald Trump.
This has happened:
Will African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Latinos, and union members vote for Democrats in the kinds of numbers Joe Biden needs to win?
If Biden achieves 2008 Obama-level turnout from these groups, Joe Biden has a good chance of winning. If, however, Trump has managed to entice away even a modest percentage of these voters- just slightly higher than he did in 2016- Democrats are facing another surprise defeat on Election Day.